ETF lifecycle — AUM trajectories & category probabilities
Balanced base case. Probabilities must sum to 100%. AUM in €M, per ETF, conditional on category.
Assumptions Total 100.0%
| Category | Probability | AUM Y0 (€M) | AUM Y1 (€M) | AUM Y3 (€M) | AUM Y5 (€M) | AUM Y8 (€M) |
|---|
Verlierer AUM reaches 0 by Year 5 (liquidation). Mega-Winner, Dienstleister and Zombie-Fonds remain active through Year 8 and beyond (AUM held flat after Y8).
AUM trajectory per category
Year 0 is the quarter the ISIN goes live. The revenue engine interpolates linearly between these milestones quarter by quarter for each cohort.
ISIN pipeline — KVG types & market penetration
Bottom-up model: grow KVG partnerships linearly to a target share of the European KVG market. Each partner is assigned a type (Large / Mid / Small / Mini) by probability, each type issues ISINs at a baseline annual rate that compounds per partner year-over-year.
KVG types Total 100.0%
| Type | Probability | ISINs per year (baseline) |
|---|
Default baseline: Large 8, Mid 4, Small 2, Mini 1 ISINs/year. With 10% growth a Large issuer produces 8.0 ISINs in Year 1, 8.8 in Year 2, 12.8 in Year 6, 18.9 in Year 10.
Markets & penetration
Each enabled market contributes its own KVG ramp starting from its entry year. Signings aggregate across all enabled markets.
Cumulative KVGs signed (by type)
Cumulative ISINs issued (by type)
Revenue projections — ARR basis
All revenue figures on an Annual Run-Rate basis — the annualised fee book at the end of each quarter. Technology layer + ETF portfolio-management fees applied to every active ISIN, with a minimum-fee floor per ISIN per year.
ARR trajectory — fee stack by quarter
Each bar is the annualised run-rate fee book at the end of that quarter (tech + PM stacked).
ARR at year-end (Q4) by category
Active ISINs & aggregate AUM
ARR at year-end
| Year (EoY) | Active ISINs | Aggregate AUM (€M) | Tech ARR (€) | PM ARR (€) | MM ARR (€) | Total ARR (€) | YoY ARR growth | % @ min fee |
|---|
"% @ min fee" = share of active ISINs whose AUM is below the AUM-fee / min-fee breakeven (€100M with default pricing). Below that threshold, minimum fees apply per ISIN per year.